14 replies to this topic

[krylite]

Sometimes I get email from a few aviation schools.http://www.atpflightschool.com/intro/commercial_pilot.html?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=flight%20simulator&utm_campaign=adwords&gclid=CIWcncqc560CFYkc6wod6TK04AIs this "shortage" really to be believed? I'm in my late 30's. Even if I wanted to try for a career change, I would probably never make it to a regional. And I hear horror stories about limited hours and how 1st officers have to fly 10 years on salaries less than most McDonald's managers. With many pilots coming back from Iraq and Afganistan, that "shortage" should be filled up pretty well by 2029 don't you all think?Thanks.

[Valcor]

If you looked at most aviation flight schools literature anytime in the past 30 years, most likely the would say something about an "airline pilot shortage".The only thing there is a shortage of is decently paying airline pilot jobs.

[dm123]

From my research into the topic, they have been saying there will be a pilot shortage for decades. The main issue is that there is a chance that they might run out of people who are willing to work for a non-living wage. Fewer and fewer people are willing to work for next to nothing, with bad hours, a high chance of losing their job at some point in their career, etc. This is especially true when one realizes that a prospective pilot needs to pay $100000 or more for college, and then $50000 or more for training. And don't forget, a health issue or failed checkride can derail your entire career. Even then though, with increasing automation, larger aircraft, etc etc, I highly doubt their will ever actually be a pilot shortage.

Edited by dm123, 23 January 2012 - 07:54 PM.

[ZachLW]

There is a shortage, and it's becoming more apparent each day the regional airlines lower hiring minimums to fill the right seat with a warm body.  The idea is to catch this wave, and catch is quick so you're up on seniority compared to the newer "warm bodies".Flight schools are on the up, regionals are hiring, and majors are merging and displacing pilots.  It's truly a proper cluster ####.  Stay away ("what goes up...").

Edited by ZachLW, 24 January 2012 - 08:54 PM.

[gtrbarbarian]

more food for thought...I was looking at a career change into aviation as well and was talking to my Dad who flew air force for 13 years and then TWA '65 - '93' ... his opinion is that he got out of flying as a career at the right time. After that, he was a CFI at a flight school for years and wondered how his students would pay off their student debt, on McDonald's wages....This PBS Frontline special on Regional Airlines seems to mirror that sentiment...http://www.pbs.org/w...ne/flyingcheap/

Edited by gtrbarbarian, 25 January 2012 - 01:59 PM.

[Cessnaflyer]

It's a race to the bottom and I like to stay away from airline aviation if I can.

[flyinpilot212121]

theres been a shortage for 20 some odd years!!!!!  Yet most of my graduating class are unemployed pilots....6 years after graduating.The day I got my CPL I moved on to another career, As much as making to the big league would be THE BEST JOB ever IMO, It offers too much Garbage to deal with for the first ohhhh 10 years ors so.example of this, The summer after graduation, my buddy got a job flying floats, got pressured into flying with crap weather, Died at a young age of 21 years old!!!!! Why did he fly you say, well if he didnt, there are 300 more pilots in line for his job behind him hat would do it!!!! Theres no shortage here in north america, I can assure you that!!

[JohnFromCO]

Flying in the airlines (pax & cargo) is a long tedious journey that can be extremely volatile.As Zach said, it is a race to get into jobs to build seniority. Seniority and PIC turbine time is king. That is why you see guys with tons of debt jumping at gigs with Great Lakes for $16k. Sure you might max out at $23k but that is hardly an improvement for rough IMC in Colorado flying equipment that possibly has deferred maintenance because the crew needs hours.If you are lucky after 2-3 years you upgrade then 7-10 years left seat before applying to the majors. However, especially today the chances of your airline not furloughing, merging, or going belly up by the time you can be marketable to majors is slim. The days of joining an airline and having a job for 30 years is long gone.Even fractionals which use to be looked upon as safe havens for pilots are no longer the case. NetJets, CitationAir (Citation Shares) and FlexJet all have pilots furloughed. Most majors have current furloughs as well.I had an sim IP who was a former TWA Captain that was the most honest person about alrline life I met. He said expect 2-3 furloughs and the same number of marriages/bankruptcies before your airline carrier is over. Sure it might have been on the extreme side but after my 2nd furlough with KHA maybe there was some truth.The shortage is a statistical lie IMO to get seats into flight schools filled and for keeping pay low in the regionals. If you think there are 300 people that will take your seat you won't complain at the pay or schedule.But if it is your choice to fly in the airlines I say go for it. It is an amazing job but takes good decision making to get the most out of it.John

Edited by cr4ckm0nk3y, 30 January 2012 - 06:02 PM.

[ZachLW]

cr4ckm0nk3y, on 30 January 2012 - 05:59 PM, said:

Flying in the airlines (pax & cargo) is a long tedious journey that can be extremely volatile.As Zach said, it is a race to get into jobs to build seniority. Seniority and PIC turbine time is king. That is why you see guys with tons of debt jumping at gigs with Great Lakes for $16k. Sure you might max out at $23k but that is hardly an improvement for rough IMC in Colorado flying equipment that possibly has deferred maintenance because the crew needs hours.If you are lucky after 2-3 years you upgrade then 7-10 years left seat before applying to the majors. However, especially today the chances of your airline not furloughing, merging, or going belly up by the time you can be marketable to majors is slim. The days of joining an airline and having a job for 30 years is long gone.Even fractionals which use to be looked upon as safe havens for pilots are no longer the case. NetJets, CitationAir (Citation Shares) and FlexJet all have pilots furloughed. Most majors have current furloughs as well.I had an sim IP who was a former TWA Captain that was the most honest person about alrline life I met. He said expect 2-3 furloughs and the same number of marriages/bankruptcies before your airline carrier is over. Sure it might have been on the extreme side but after my 2nd furlough with KHA maybe there was some truth.The shortage is a statistical lie IMO to get seats into flight schools filled and for keeping pay low in the regionals. If you think there are 300 people that will take your seat you won't complain at the pay or schedule.But if it is your choice to fly in the airlines I say go for it. It is an amazing job but takes good decision making to get the most out of it.John

Well said.

Quote

I had an sim IP who was a former TWA Captain that was the most honest person about alrline life I met. He said expect 2-3 furloughs and the same number of marriages/bankruptcies before your airline carrier is over. Sure it might have been on the extreme side but after my 2nd furlough with KHA maybe there was some truth.

We call those guys buzz kills.

[Cessnaflyer]

ZachLW, on 30 January 2012 - 07:52 PM, said:

We call those guys buzz kills.

Unfortunately for many it is speaking the truth.The only two people in aviation that I know that hasn't been furloughed is a friend that just got hired at Hawaiian and myself. Our times may come as well. The saying though is "There are those people that have, and those that will."

Edited by Cessnaflyer, 30 January 2012 - 10:27 PM.

[ZachLW]

Cessnaflyer, on 30 January 2012 - 10:26 PM, said:

Unfortunately for many it is speaking the truth.The only two people in aviation that I know that hasn't been furloughed is a friend that just got hired at Hawaiian and myself. Our times may come as well. The saying though is "There are those people that have, and those that will."

I said that tongue in cheek, of course.  I'm well aware of what I'm potentially getting myself into. A few of my friends and I call the RUQ airport manager buzz.  Short for buzzkill, he was at a very popular regional airline for 9 years.  He loves to tell the horror stories about pilots getting screwed over, but he always says one thing:  "I loved it and it was a great experience. It's [airlines] just not for me".Same saying goes for ground loops...

[momtchil]

[JohnFromCO]

ZachLW, on 30 January 2012 - 07:52 PM, said:

Well said.We call those guys buzz kills.

He was just trying to be honest. ;)That same pilot also spent 35 years with TWA before retiring and has more good stories than bad.As for airline life, I hope my comments were not completely discouraging. Airline life is tough at first but it is also a job few get to do and the experience is amazing.It is hard to explain to non-pilots the feeling of popping out just above minimums and seeing the rabbit (ALS) running right in front of you followed by the REILs is simply breathtaking. I can't think of another job that can be as mind blowing.  With that it is all about finding the career path in aviation that works for you. I have many friends that fly in the regionals and love it yet others hated it and moved on. Some like freight while others don't. You can still get paid to fly besides in the airlines.So to the OP, find the type of flying you like and stick to it. If it means eating Ramen (PB&J in my case) 3 meals a day and living with 6 other drivers in a 1 bedroom apartment in lovely Cleveland you do it. If you prefer to be at home and instruct you do that. Don't expect to get rich but expect to see things most others will never get too.John

Edited by cr4ckm0nk3y, 01 February 2012 - 06:09 PM.

[Cessnaflyer]

Yes it does let you do some cool things. For Valentines day my wife and I are going down in the King Air and staying in La Jolla. Nothing like being paid to take your wife out on a date. Today I got to go in some tide pools and watch crabs and anemones in their little habitats and watch seals roll around on the beach.

Edited by Cessnaflyer, 01 February 2012 - 08:47 PM.

[ahsmatt7]

ZachLW, on 24 January 2012 - 08:53 PM, said:

There is a shortage, and it's becoming more apparent each day the regional airlines lower hiring minimums to fill the right seat with a warm body.  The idea is to catch this wave, and catch is quick so you're up on seniority compared to the newer "warm bodies".

You must not be familiar with HR 5900. They are doing the exact opposite...